Is Trump Growing a Military War Against America’s Allies?

Expanding Ally Trade Pacts Exclude U.S., and EU Mulls Moving Troops vs Trump. (Yes, you read that second phrase correctly.)

Feb 04, 2025

A couple of weeks ago I published a column with what seems a logical premise: Working together on the global economy avoids conflict, and conflict over the economy can lead to war.

Trump with troops six years ago. (foxnews,com)

Washington and its military logically, and sadly, plans for possible war primarily with Russia and China. And most knowledgeable Americans see Europe as a traditional, solid ally, primarily through the operation of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) which for years has been largely funded by the U.S. as a bulwark against Russian expansion.

But now, with Donald Trump in power, things are no longer that simple or stable.

Geopolitical Monitor, an international intelligence publication based in Toronto, published a Jan. 30 opinion piece headlined, “Trump 2.0 Is Disastrous for Europe in Every Way”.

That’s a startling view of America’s autocratic president and his relationship with the country’s traditional allies. The piece goes on to explain:

…Europeans are deeply worried about how he might reshape global politics. His first term brought radical changes to US foreign policy, marked by isolationist tendencies, withdrawal from multilateral agreements, and an aggressive prioritization of national interests. Should Trump 2.0 follow a similar trajectory, it would undoubtedly pose a serious threat to the global order and Europe, which is already grappling with the Ukraine war. His policies would significantly harm Europe, a region deeply dependent on multilateral cooperation to ensure stability and progress.

Trump, of course, is clearly following an even more aggressive, destabilizing trajectory. In his first month in office, he has threatened annexing Canada, and taking over Greenland and the Panama Canal. He has announced new tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China, leading to both Canada and Mexico each agreeing to bring 10,000 troops to their borders with the U.S. to allegedly stop illegal immigration and the flow of the deadly fentanyl drug into the U.S., along with other measures. That has delayed tariffs for a month.

Can you see any problem with growing numbers of troops at a neighboring nation’s borders? That sounds like a common worry of Ukraine with Russia even before Putin’s 2022 invasion. And China and India’s borders, where troop gatherings lead to “skirmishes”, a gentle military word for only a few humans dying each time tempers rise.

So, the question is, has Trump agreed to match those troop figures with Americans on both borders? Trump has already sent 4,000 troops to the U.S.-Mexico border. It’s not clear if he’s sending more north or south. But knowing Trump’s ego…

Don’t expect those troops to always get along, particularly if Trump follows through on tariffs in a month or so.

Growing Trade Troubles

Trump also has a visibly growing problem with Europe. Its negative experience with Trump’s first term, and his immediate international threats on entering office this year, have seen the Europeans prepared to counter his trade aggression.

The New York Times today ran the article “One Response to Trump’s Tariffs: Trade That Excludes the U.S.” The article emphasized:

As President Trump this weekend opened what could become a global trade war, a growing number of countries, including America’s closest allies, are forging their own economic partnerships without the United States. If Washington is putting up a higher fence around its trade, other nations are lowering theirs.

In just the last two months, the European Union concluded three new trade deals.

Those deals include a major new agreement with four South American countries to create one of the world’s largest trade zones, linking markets with 850 million people. The other two: one with Switzerland, and also bolstered trade arrangements with Mexico. The EU has also opened talks with Malaysia.

Meanwhile, as Trump looks to challenge China with new tariffs, the United Kingdom recently agreed with China on a win-win exchange. As I quoted Market Watch in my January column:

The U.K. Treasury says the cooperation will be worth at least £600 million ($727 million) to the U.K. economy over the next five years.

What China was getting can be found less in what was said [than] what was not said — the U.K. has not followed the U.S., Canada and the European Union in levying big tariffs on Chinese-made electric vehicles.

The U.K. action cannot help Trump with his challenges to China.

Troubling Saber Rattling

Particularly disturbing has been Trump’s lusting after Greenland. He has vocally called for the U.S. to take possession of the Danish territory.

This brought a little-covered but serious response from France, a traditional friendly ally of the U.S. and member of NATO. As reported last week in The Daily Beast, an American news website focused on politics, media, and pop culture:

France offered to deploy troops to Greenland after Donald Trump repeatedly signaled he’d like to annex the Danish territory, French Foreign Minister Jean-Noël Barrot said.

Barrot said in an interview with Sud Radio that France had “started discussing” sending troops to Greenland, but it wasn’t “Denmark’s wish” to follow through with the idea.

Barrot added that during a European Union foreign ministers’ meeting on Monday that the other ministers “were ready to consider” sending troops and expressed their “very strong support” for Denmark.

You may want to read that again. It says that the European Union, America’s ally since the end of World War II, is talking about moving militarily against Trump’s aggression. Going to war with the United States.

You can hear the growls here, can’t you: the American Exceptionalist Trump supporters saying, “They’d never challenge our military might. We spend more money on defense than the next nine countries combined. And we’re a nuclear state.”

Don’t bet on it.

The E.U. is obviously making clear they’ve already had enough of Trump. They know how he works and won’t be intimidated this time.

Also, the E.U. is heavily invested in defending Ukraine. And if and when Trump pulls American support from the Russian victim, don’t expect the Europeans to just shrug their shoulders over that.

They know Trump wants to be a dictator, and never apologizes. Always wants things his way.

But that may not happen, and we Americans may end up paying a heavy price for it.

Also pay attention to the U.S. military’s current shaky state:

Trump has threatened to purge the military of officers. And he has openly challenged Gen. Mark Milley, former chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, ending his security detail and security clearances, and investigating him. Milley and other generals who had served under Trump have called him a fascist, dictator, liar, and incompetent leader. He wants retribution.

All this can’t help but affect military morale, you’d think.

Then The New Yorker this week published the article “The U.S. Military’s Recruiting Crisis”, stating “The ranks of the American armed forces are depleted. Is the problem the military or the country?”

A major problem has been America’s history of illegal endless wars, with the government in denial of the illegality.

If Trump causes a military conflict, he’ll probably want to instill a draft. But having less than half of the nation’s popular vote, don’t expect America’s young to take a draft happily, if at all.

Meanwhile, yesterday The Washington Post headlined, “Rubio threatens Panama’s president over canal, saying status quo is ‘unacceptable’”. Marco Rubio is Trump’s new secretary of state.

“Threatens” regarding another country is, of course, a fighting word.

Georgia Tech’s Panama Canal trade portal notes:

The accessibility provided by the Panama Canal competitively binds all global markets, mainly Asia, Europe, North and South America.

That’s ALL global markets. Expect the already ornery EU, China, Russia, and others to be paying close attention to Trump’s efforts to take over the canal, and how that might affect all their economies.

Wars have been fought over less.

Cooperation, the Global Economy, and Endless War (substack.com)

Trump 2.0 Is Disastrous for Europe in Every Way | Geopolitical Monitor

Trump agrees to month-long tariff pause with Canada, Mexico (axios.com)

One Response to Trump’s Tariffs: Trade That Excludes the U.S. - The New York Times (nytimes.com)

U.S. Ally Offered Greenland Troops to Ward Off Trump (msn.com)

Trump Wants Greenland? Funny? No. Dictator Perfect. (substack.com)

Marco Rubio threatens Panama over canal - The Washington Post

Statistics - Panama Logistics Web Portal (gatech.pa)

Pentagon to Send 1,500 Additional Troops to U.S.-Mexico Border - The New York Times (nytimes.com)

Dangerous Ground: Trump’s Aggression Toward Gen. Milley Could Backfire (substack.com)

I Hear “Military Purge” and Recall Stalin (substack.com)